Farmington, Arkansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

425
FXUS64 KTSA 251754
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1254 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1136 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

 - Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening.
   Higher-end severe weather threats are possible, particularly in
   SE OK.

 - Severe storms may also occur Sunday but confidence is lower.

 - Thunderstorm chances linger into Monday and Tuesday across
   eastern areas, but the severe weather potential appears to be
   lower.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

West-southwest flow aloft persists across the Southern Plains
today and a mid-level shortwave will pass through the region this
afternoon. At the surface, south to southeast winds will provide
continued moisture advection east of a strengthening sfc low
located in NW Texas. This will maintain 60+ dewpoints across
eastern Oklahoma today. A remnant outflow boundary/warm front will
continue to move northward out of Texas this afternoon, providing
greater moisture concentration and low level convergence across
southeast Oklahoma. As sfc temperatures warm this afternoon,
strong instability should develop across eastern Oklahoma,
especially across the southeast.

Low clouds have so far been slow to erode, but isolated to
scattered thunderstorm development is still expected by mid to
late afternoon, especially in the vicinity of the warm front
across central to southeast Oklahoma. A more subtle boundary
further north into NE OK may also prove to be a focus for
potential development. Sfc winds will generally remain out of the
south to southeast today and strongly veer with height, producing
enlarged clockwise-curved hodographs. With steep lapse rates and
strong deep layer shear present, storms are likely to intensify
and become supercellular, especially across SE OK. All severe
hazards will be possible, including very large to giant
hailstones in excess of 2-4 inches, tornadoes (potentially
strong), and damaging wind gusts. Tornado potential is likely to
be maximized along the warm front this evening as the LLJ
strengthens. Given elongated hodographs in the upper levels, storm
splits can be expected, with right-mover motion oriented to the
southeast and left-movers trending northeast.

The greatest severe potential should end by late evening or early
overnight tonight, though some chance of severe weather will
linger into the overnight hours as additional elevated
thunderstorms remain possible into the early morning hours Sunday.
The threat for significant/higher-end severe weather is mainly
before midnight. Additionally, heavy rainfall and localized flash
flooding will be possible this evening, especially across
southeast Oklahoma.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Saturday)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Sundays forecast will be largely influenced by what happens today
and tonight, but at least some potential for severe weather will
persist. Showers and storms may be ongoing Sunday morning, with a
gradual trend towards decreasing precip through the morning into
the afternoon. Latest guidance indicates a later arrival of the
shortwave and greater convective inhibition across the warm
sector, casting doubt on afternoon/ evening development across the
FA. Still, if a storm can develop and intensify, the environment
will support severe weather including large hail, damaging winds,
and tornadoes. It appears the greatest potential for severe wx in
our CWA may stem from any supercells which develop west of the
area along the dryline, then move east into the FA. However, this
would probably be a fairly brief window during the late afternoon/
evening hours Sunday.

As the mid-upper level system navigates eastward Sunday night
into Monday, a cold front will push east as well. Thunderstorm
development will be possible along the front Monday afternoon,
potentially impacting parts of far E OK/NW AR before exiting the
region. Severe weather will be possible with this activity, but
less so then over the weekend. A secondary front will push south
into the region Monday evening and overnight, but may tend to hang
up across SE OK Tuesday as a mid-level wave moves across the
Southern Plains. Thunderstorms are again expected to develop along
the front during the afternoon, with severe weather possible
across SE OK and W-Central AR.

A break in the active pattern is expected on Wednesday as the
front finally clears the area with high pressure filling into the
region. Rain chances return late Thursday and Friday as an upper
low moves east from the desert SW. At this time, the greatest
instability is expected to reside across SE OK or south of the FA
altogether, limiting thunderstorm potential. High pressure follows
with a period of quieter weather possible next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Mostly VFR conditions will prevail the next few hours but with
exceptions. KMLC and KFSM may have periods of MVFR as well due to
low clouds lowering ceilings to 2-3 kft. In time, these clouds may
return to the Tulsa area as well this afternoon for a time as well
but the ceiling height is uncertain. Severe thunderstorms will
likely occur across east central through southeast OK and west-
central AR late this afternoon and evening. Impacts may include
large hail, damaging winds, heavy rain. The outlook is less
certain for the northern TAF sites, but thunderstorms may also
occur here, but the confidence is lower. Additional storm activity
may return overnight, particularly for eastern Oklahoma. Low
ceilings will develop across the area as this occurs, potentially
down to 1-2 kft briefly. Winds will remain out of the east to
southeast for much of the period, with a few gusts to 15-20 kts at
times, but usually lower.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   62  79  69  88 /  70  30  30  10
FSM   62  82  69  88 /  80  30  40  30
MLC   63  83  71  88 /  90  20  20  10
BVO   57  78  64  87 /  60  30  30   0
FYV   59  79  65  84 /  70  40  50  40
BYV   59  77  66  84 /  70  40  60  50
MKO   61  80  69  87 /  80  30  30  10
MIO   59  78  67  84 /  70  40  50  20
F10   60  82  69  87 /  80  30  20  10
HHW   63  82  68  87 /  90  20  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...06